Waterford FC vs Derry City

14 Sep 2026 · 20:45

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +2.3 pp

Waterford FC

Derry City

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 38.3% DRAW 24.8% AWAY 36.9%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 36.0% 2.70 DRAW 25.4% 3.82 AWAY 38.6% 2.52

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 2.3 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Mixed Performance

The overall recent shot balance favours the home side, although neither attack nor defence dominates every measure.

Attack Recent attacking output

Waterford FC Derry City

Shots 16.5 · On target 6.0 Shots 13.5 · On target 6.3

Recent attacking output is broadly balanced between the two teams.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Waterford FC Derry City

Shots allowed 10.8 · On target allowed 3.5 Shots allowed 10.5 · On target allowed 4.5

Recent defensive numbers are broadly balanced between the two teams.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Waterford FC Derry City

The combined recent performance profile is relatively balanced.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home strengthening

Waterford FC ↓ -0.46 (-14.6%)

Derry City ↑ +0.40 (+18.9%)

The home price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the home side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.