Dundalk vs St Patricks

14 Sep 2026 · 20:45

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +1.5 pp

Dundalk

St Patricks

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 29.0% DRAW 24.6% AWAY 46.5%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 27.5% 3.63 DRAW 24.9% 4.01 AWAY 47.6% 2.10

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 1.5 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Mixed Performance

Recent attacking and defensive numbers do not show a clear overall edge.

Attack Recent attacking output

Dundalk St Patricks

Shots 15.8 · On target 3.8 Shots 13.0 · On target 5.0

Recent attacking output is broadly balanced between the two teams.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Dundalk St Patricks

Shots allowed 12.0 · On target allowed 4.8 Shots allowed 12.3 · On target allowed 4.0

Recent defensive numbers are broadly balanced between the two teams.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Dundalk St Patricks

The combined recent performance profile is relatively balanced.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home weakening

Dundalk ↑ +0.42 (+12.9%)

St Patricks ↑ +0.01 (+0.5%)

The home price has moved clearly higher, while the away price has remained broadly stable.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.