LDU Quito vs Palmeiras

17 Sep 2026 · 00:00

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE AWAY +3.7 pp

LDU Quito

Palmeiras

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 32.8% DRAW 30.8% AWAY 36.4%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 36.8% 2.66 DRAW 30.6% 3.20 AWAY 32.6% 3.00

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for Palmeiras relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 36.4% win probability, compared with 32.6% implied by the market. The 3.7 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Palmeiras has the stronger recent profile

The away side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

LDU Quito Palmeiras

Shots 11.0 · On target 2.5 Shots 18.0 · On target 4.8

Recent attacking output favours Palmeiras, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

LDU Quito Palmeiras

Shots allowed 14.8 · On target allowed 5.0 Shots allowed 11.8 · On target allowed 2.8

Palmeiras has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

LDU Quito Palmeiras

The combined recent performance profile favours Palmeiras.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home strengthening

LDU Quito ↓ -0.36 (-11.7%)

Palmeiras ↑ +0.50 (+20.0%)

The home price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the home side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.