Union Minas vs Santos FC

12 Sep 2026 · 20:00

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +0.6 pp

Union Minas

Santos FC

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 68.0% DRAW 20.7% AWAY 11.2%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 67.5% 1.46 DRAW 21.2% 4.65 AWAY 11.3% 8.70

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 0.6 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: Santos FC

The home side shows the stronger recent defensive profile, while the attacking comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Union Minas Santos FC

Shots 8.0 · On target 3.0 Shots 10.5 · On target 4.8

Recent attacking output favours Santos FC, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Union Minas Santos FC

Shots allowed 6.3 · On target allowed 2.0 Shots allowed 11.8 · On target allowed 4.3

Union Minas has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Union Minas Santos FC

The combined recent performance profile is relatively balanced.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home strengthening

Union Minas ↓ -0.14 (-8.8%)

Santos FC ↑ +3.20 (+58.2%)

The home price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the home side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.