Corinthians vs Estudiantes LP

17 Sep 2026 · 02:30

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE AWAY +3.8 pp

Corinthians

Estudiantes LP

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 40.6% DRAW 34.0% AWAY 25.4%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 46.1% 2.11 DRAW 32.3% 3.01 AWAY 21.6% 4.51

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for Estudiantes LP relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 25.4% win probability, compared with 21.6% implied by the market. The 3.8 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Estudiantes LP has the stronger recent profile

The away side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Corinthians Estudiantes LP

Shots 11.5 · On target 3.0 Shots 14.5 · On target 6.8

Recent attacking output favours Estudiantes LP, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Corinthians Estudiantes LP

Shots allowed 15.0 · On target allowed 6.3 Shots allowed 9.8 · On target allowed 2.5

Estudiantes LP has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Corinthians Estudiantes LP

The combined recent performance profile favours Estudiantes LP.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Market broadly stable

Corinthians ↑ +0.18 (+9.1%)

Estudiantes LP ↓ -0.17 (-3.6%)

No substantial directional movement is visible in the stored odds trend.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.