SC Villa vs Kigezi Homeboyz FC

15 Sep 2026 · 15:00

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE HOME +3.0 pp

SC Villa

Kigezi Homeboyz FC

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 64.7% DRAW 24.9% AWAY 10.4%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 61.7% 1.48 DRAW 25.9% 3.52 AWAY 12.4% 7.39

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for SC Villa relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 64.7% win probability, compared with 61.7% implied by the market. The 3.0 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

SC Villa has the stronger recent profile

The home side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

SC Villa Kigezi Homeboyz FC

Shots 9.8 · On target 4.3 Shots 8.5 · On target 3.0

Recent attacking output favours SC Villa, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

SC Villa Kigezi Homeboyz FC

Shots allowed 9.3 · On target allowed 2.3 Shots allowed 16.5 · On target allowed 7.0

SC Villa has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

SC Villa Kigezi Homeboyz FC

The combined recent performance profile favours SC Villa.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Away weakening

SC Villa = (0.0%)

Kigezi Homeboyz FC ↑ +0.89 (+13.7%)

The away price has moved clearly higher, while the home price has remained broadly stable.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.