Uganda Police FC vs UPDF FC

10 Sep 2026 · 15:00

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE AWAY +3.0 pp

Uganda Police FC

UPDF FC

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 49.1% DRAW 28.2% AWAY 22.7%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 53.0% 1.76 DRAW 27.3% 3.43 AWAY 19.7% 4.75

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for UPDF FC relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 22.7% win probability, compared with 19.7% implied by the market. The 3.0 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

UPDF FC has the stronger recent profile

The away side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Uganda Police FC UPDF FC

Shots 9.3 · On target 2.5 Shots 9.8 · On target 3.3

Recent attacking output is broadly balanced between the two teams.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Uganda Police FC UPDF FC

Shots allowed 16.0 · On target allowed 6.0 Shots allowed 7.8 · On target allowed 3.3

UPDF FC has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Uganda Police FC UPDF FC

The combined recent performance profile favours UPDF FC.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Away strengthening

Uganda Police FC ↑ +0.13 (+8.2%)

UPDF FC ↓ -0.29 (-5.8%)

The away price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the away side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.