Hong Kong (W) vs Philippines (W)

17 Sep 2026 · 12:00

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +2.4 pp

Hong Kong (W)

Philippines (W)

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 8.8% DRAW 14.2% AWAY 77.0%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 6.5% 14.50 DRAW 13.0% 7.20 AWAY 80.5% 1.17

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 2.4 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Defensive Edge: Hong Kong (W)

The home side shows the stronger recent defensive profile, while the attacking comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Hong Kong (W) Philippines (W)

Shots 4.8 · On target 2.3 Shots 5.5 · On target 2.0

Recent attacking output is broadly balanced between the two teams.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Hong Kong (W) Philippines (W)

Shots allowed 9.3 · On target allowed 4.0 Shots allowed 18.3 · On target allowed 6.8

Hong Kong (W) has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Hong Kong (W) Philippines (W)

The combined recent performance profile favours Hong Kong (W).

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home strengthening

Hong Kong (W) ↓ -2.50 (-14.7%)

Philippines (W) ↑ +0.02 (+1.4%)

The home price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the home side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.