China PR (W) vs Hong Kong (W)

14 Sep 2026 · 12:00

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +1.2 pp

China PR (W)

Hong Kong (W)

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 89.1% DRAW 6.5% AWAY 4.4%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 87.9% 1.08 DRAW 7.6% 12.50 AWAY 4.5% 21.00

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 1.2 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: China PR (W)

The home side shows the stronger recent attacking profile, while the defensive comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

China PR (W) Hong Kong (W)

Shots 13.0 · On target 3.8 Shots 4.3 · On target 1.8

Recent attacking output favours China PR (W), combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

China PR (W) Hong Kong (W)

Shots allowed 4.3 · On target allowed 1.8 Shots allowed 1.0 · On target allowed 0.5

Hong Kong (W) has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

China PR (W) Hong Kong (W)

The combined recent performance profile is relatively balanced.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Away strengthening

China PR (W) ↑ +0.04 (+3.8%)

Hong Kong (W) ↓ -2.00 (-8.7%)

The away price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the away side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.