Sumsel United vs PSMS Medan

13 Sep 2026 · 10:30

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +0.3 pp

Sumsel United

PSMS Medan

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 44.0% DRAW 29.8% AWAY 26.2%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 43.7% 2.25 DRAW 29.7% 3.31 AWAY 26.6% 3.70

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 0.3 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: PSMS Medan

Recent attacking and defensive numbers do not show a clear overall edge.

Attack Recent attacking output

Sumsel United PSMS Medan

Shots 2.3 · On target 0.5 Shots 10.5 · On target 4.0

Recent attacking output favours PSMS Medan, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Sumsel United PSMS Medan

Shots allowed 1.0 · On target allowed 0.8 Shots allowed 10.5 · On target allowed 3.8

Sumsel United has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Sumsel United PSMS Medan

The combined recent performance profile is relatively balanced.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Away strengthening

Sumsel United ↑ +0.52 (+30.3%)

PSMS Medan ↓ -0.50 (-11.9%)

The away price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the away side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.