Hibernian vs Hearts

03 Sep 2026 · 20:45

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +0.6 pp

Hibernian

Hearts

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 38.8% DRAW 26.7% AWAY 34.5%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 39.1% 2.49 DRAW 27.0% 3.60 AWAY 33.9% 2.87

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 0.6 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: Hearts

Recent attacking and defensive numbers do not show a clear overall edge.

Attack Recent attacking output

Hibernian Hearts

Shots 14.0 · On target 5.0 Shots 17.0 · On target 8.3

Recent attacking output favours Hearts, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Hibernian Hearts

Shots allowed 11.3 · On target allowed 5.3 Shots allowed 15.3 · On target allowed 5.0

Recent defensive numbers are broadly balanced between the two teams.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Hibernian Hearts

The combined recent performance profile is relatively balanced.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Away weakening

Hibernian ↓ -0.01 (-0.4%)

Hearts ↑ +0.23 (+8.7%)

The away price has moved clearly higher, while the home price has remained broadly stable.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.