Spartak Varna vs CSKA Sofia

05 Sep 2026 · 18:00

OPPORTUNITY

CLEAR EDGE AWAY +4.2 pp

Spartak Varna

CSKA Sofia

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 12.8% DRAW 21.3% AWAY 65.9%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 15.4% 6.25 DRAW 22.9% 4.20 AWAY 61.8% 1.56

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet rates CSKA Sofia clearly higher than the market does.

Our calibrated model estimates a 65.9% win probability, compared with 61.8% implied by the market. The 4.2 percentage-point difference indicates a clear divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

CSKA Sofia has the stronger recent profile

The away side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Spartak Varna CSKA Sofia

Shots 6.3 · On target 2.0 Shots 14.5 · On target 6.5

Recent attacking output favours CSKA Sofia, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Spartak Varna CSKA Sofia

Shots allowed 14.8 · On target allowed 7.3 Shots allowed 9.8 · On target allowed 5.0

CSKA Sofia has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Spartak Varna CSKA Sofia

The combined recent performance profile favours CSKA Sofia.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home strengthening

Spartak Varna ↓ -0.75 (-10.7%)

CSKA Sofia ↑ +0.04 (+2.8%)

The home price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the home side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.