Trento vs Desenzano

03 Sep 2026 · 21:00

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +2.3 pp

Trento

Desenzano

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 45.5% DRAW 28.3% AWAY 26.2%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 43.2% 2.22 DRAW 28.6% 3.35 AWAY 28.2% 3.40

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 2.3 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Trento has the stronger recent profile

The home side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Trento Desenzano

Shots 14.3 · On target 5.0 Shots 11.5 · On target 3.0

Recent attacking output favours Trento, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Trento Desenzano

Shots allowed 11.3 · On target allowed 3.0 Shots allowed 11.8 · On target allowed 3.8

Recent defensive numbers are broadly balanced between the two teams.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Trento Desenzano

The combined recent performance profile favours Trento.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Away strengthening

Trento ↑ +0.52 (+30.6%)

Desenzano ↓ -1.24 (-26.6%)

The away price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the away side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.