Inter Milan vs Napoli

05 Sep 2026 · 18:00

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE HOME +3.3 pp

Inter Milan

Napoli

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 61.2% DRAW 23.4% AWAY 15.4%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 57.9% 1.66 DRAW 24.6% 3.90 AWAY 17.5% 5.50

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for Inter Milan relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 61.2% win probability, compared with 57.9% implied by the market. The 3.3 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Inter Milan has the stronger recent profile

The home side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Inter Milan Napoli

Shots 17.5 · On target 5.5 Shots 11.8 · On target 4.5

Recent attacking output favours Inter Milan, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Inter Milan Napoli

Shots allowed 7.5 · On target allowed 2.0 Shots allowed 10.5 · On target allowed 3.8

Inter Milan has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Inter Milan Napoli

The combined recent performance profile favours Inter Milan.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home strengthening

Inter Milan ↓ -0.10 (-5.7%)

Napoli ↑ +0.13 (+2.4%)

The home price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the home side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.