Cerro vs Cerrito

10 Sep 2026 · 21:00

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +0.7 pp

Cerro

Cerrito

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 42.2% DRAW 29.5% AWAY 28.3%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 43.1% 2.18 DRAW 29.3% 3.20 AWAY 27.6% 3.40

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 0.7 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: Cerro

The away side shows the stronger recent defensive profile, while the attacking comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Cerro Cerrito

Shots 5.3 · On target 2.5 Shots 3.5 · On target 1.0

Recent attacking output favours Cerro, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Cerro Cerrito

Shots allowed 9.8 · On target allowed 4.0 Shots allowed 4.8 · On target allowed 2.0

Cerrito has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Cerro Cerrito

The combined recent performance profile is relatively balanced.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Market broadly stable

Cerro ↑ +0.08 (+3.8%)

Cerrito ↑ +0.14 (+4.1%)

No substantial directional movement is visible in the stored odds trend.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.