Roma vs Atalanta

05 Sep 2026 · 20:45

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +2.1 pp

Roma

Atalanta

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 58.1% DRAW 24.1% AWAY 17.8%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 56.0% 1.77 DRAW 24.9% 3.97 AWAY 19.0% 5.20

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 2.1 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: Roma

Recent attacking and defensive numbers do not show a clear overall edge.

Attack Recent attacking output

Roma Atalanta

Shots 12.8 · On target 5.0 Shots 10.8 · On target 4.8

Recent attacking output is broadly balanced between the two teams.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Roma Atalanta

Shots allowed 10.8 · On target allowed 5.8 Shots allowed 16.3 · On target allowed 5.3

Recent defensive numbers are broadly balanced between the two teams.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Roma Atalanta

The combined recent performance profile is relatively balanced.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Market broadly stable

Roma ↓ -0.05 (-3.0%)

Atalanta ↓ -0.05 (-1.0%)

No substantial directional movement is visible in the stored odds trend.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.