Cagliari vs Lecce

07 Sep 2026 · 18:30

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +0.6 pp

Cagliari

Lecce

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 48.0% DRAW 30.6% AWAY 21.4%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 47.4% 2.05 DRAW 30.3% 3.20 AWAY 22.3% 4.36

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 0.6 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Mixed Performance

The overall recent shot balance favours the home side, although neither attack nor defence dominates every measure.

Attack Recent attacking output

Cagliari Lecce

Shots 12.3 · On target 3.5 Shots 11.5 · On target 4.0

Recent attacking output is broadly balanced between the two teams.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Cagliari Lecce

Shots allowed 15.8 · On target allowed 4.0 Shots allowed 15.5 · On target allowed 6.8

Cagliari has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Cagliari Lecce

The combined recent performance profile is relatively balanced.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Market broadly stable

Cagliari = (0.0%)

Lecce ↑ +0.06 (+1.4%)

No substantial directional movement is visible in the stored odds trend.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.