Ferroviaria (W) vs Flamengo (W)

05 Sep 2026 · 21:30

OPPORTUNITY

CLEAR EDGE AWAY +4.2 pp

Ferroviaria (W)

Flamengo (W)

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 41.8% DRAW 30.0% AWAY 28.2%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 46.9% 2.05 DRAW 29.1% 3.30 AWAY 24.0% 4.01

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet rates Flamengo (W) clearly higher than the market does.

Our calibrated model estimates a 28.2% win probability, compared with 24.0% implied by the market. The 4.2 percentage-point difference indicates a clear divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Flamengo (W) has the stronger recent profile

The away side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Ferroviaria (W) Flamengo (W)

Shots 12.8 · On target 4.8 Shots 18.3 · On target 10.3

Recent attacking output favours Flamengo (W), combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Ferroviaria (W) Flamengo (W)

Shots allowed 10.0 · On target allowed 5.8 Shots allowed 8.5 · On target allowed 3.0

Flamengo (W) has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Ferroviaria (W) Flamengo (W)

The combined recent performance profile favours Flamengo (W).

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Market broadly stable

Ferroviaria (W) = (0.0%)

Flamengo (W) ↑ +0.10 (+2.6%)

No substantial directional movement is visible in the stored odds trend.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.