Sao Paulo (W) vs Gremio (W)

05 Sep 2026 · 21:30

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +1.0 pp

Sao Paulo (W)

Gremio (W)

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 61.9% DRAW 23.2% AWAY 14.9%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 63.1% 1.46 DRAW 23.0% 4.00 AWAY 13.9% 6.63

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 1.0 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Gremio (W) has the stronger recent profile

The away side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Sao Paulo (W) Gremio (W)

Shots 12.0 · On target 4.0 Shots 12.5 · On target 5.5

Recent attacking output is broadly balanced between the two teams.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Sao Paulo (W) Gremio (W)

Shots allowed 8.0 · On target allowed 2.8 Shots allowed 7.0 · On target allowed 2.5

Recent defensive numbers are broadly balanced between the two teams.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Sao Paulo (W) Gremio (W)

The combined recent performance profile is relatively balanced.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Away strengthening

Sao Paulo (W) ↓ -0.07 (-4.8%)

Gremio (W) ↓ -0.62 (-8.6%)

The away price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the away side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.