Japan U23 vs Thailand U23

23 Sep 2026 · 12:30

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +2.3 pp

Japan U23

Thailand U23

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 83.6% DRAW 11.6% AWAY 4.8%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 81.3% 1.17 DRAW 13.1% 7.25 AWAY 5.6% 17.00

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 2.3 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Defensive Edge: Japan U23

The home side shows the stronger recent defensive profile, while the attacking comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Japan U23 Thailand U23

Shots 12.3 · On target 5.3 Shots 10.8 · On target 5.5

Recent attacking output is broadly balanced between the two teams.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Japan U23 Thailand U23

Shots allowed 3.0 · On target allowed 1.5 Shots allowed 12.8 · On target allowed 5.0

Japan U23 has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Japan U23 Thailand U23

The combined recent performance profile favours Japan U23.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home strengthening

Japan U23 ↓ -0.14 (-10.7%)

Thailand U23 ↑ +8.35 (+96.5%)

The home price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the home side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.