Japan U23 vs Hong Kong U23

16 Sep 2026 · 12:30

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +1.2 pp

Japan U23

Hong Kong U23

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 96.5% DRAW 2.8% AWAY 0.7%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 95.3% 1.03 DRAW 3.8% 26.00 AWAY 1.0% 100.00

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 1.2 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Japan U23 has the stronger recent profile

The home side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Japan U23 Hong Kong U23

Shots 14.0 · On target 5.8 Shots 1.8 · On target 1.0

Recent attacking output favours Japan U23, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Japan U23 Hong Kong U23

Shots allowed 7.0 · On target allowed 2.5 Shots allowed 12.5 · On target allowed 5.3

Japan U23 has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Japan U23 Hong Kong U23

The combined recent performance profile favours Japan U23.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Away weakening

Japan U23 = (0.0%)

Hong Kong U23 ↑ +74.00 (+284.6%)

The away price has moved clearly higher, while the home price has remained broadly stable.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.