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Belgium Reserve League · BE

Westerlo Reserves vs RFC Seraing Reserves

23 Oct 2026 · 20:30
FOOTBALL MATCH INTELLIGENCE · MATCH OVERVIEW

Match Overview

Model vs Market

The model identifies a negligible model-market difference for a home win for Westerlo Reserves. The difference is too small to suggest meaningful disagreement.

Recent Performance

The home side have enjoyed a strong sequence of recent results. They have generated considerably more attempts than they have conceded.

The visitors have experienced mixed results recently. Their shooting balance has been moderately positive.

Pre-Match Betting Perspective

Despite the positive model-market difference, the available Pinnacle pre-match reference odds of 2.13 do not exceed the model's estimated fair odds of approximately 2.36. At this price, a home win for Westerlo Reserves does not appear sufficiently attractive. A more favourable price before kick-off would be needed.

Statistical Context & Data Notes

Historical samples may involve different opponents, competitions and dates; shared fixtures are not independent. Missing shooting data are excluded. No xG, shot-quality or opponent-strength adjustment. Editorial selection thresholds are not significance tests; no prediction is implied.

Historical performance provides context rather than a prediction of the final result.

FOOTBALL MATCH INTELLIGENCE

Model vs Market

MARKET · PINNACLE
HOME MODEL > MARKET
Westerlo Reserves
STOCHASTICBET 42.4%
PINNACLE 42.2% odd 2.13
DIFFERENCE +0.2 pp
DRAW
Draw
STOCHASTICBET 25.1%
PINNACLE 25.1% odd 3.58
DIFFERENCE -0.1 pp
AWAY
RFC Seraing Reserves
STOCHASTICBET 32.5%
PINNACLE 32.7% odd 2.75
DIFFERENCE -0.1 pp
STOCHASTICBET
PINNACLE MARKET
Market · PINNACLE Snapshot · 23 Oct 2026 · 19:01
PERFORMANCE · LAST 4 MATCHES

Attacking Edge: Westerlo Reserves

Recent attacking and defensive numbers do not show a clear overall edge.

Attack Recent attacking output
Westerlo Reserves RFC Seraing Reserves
Shots 12.5 · On target 5.3 Shots 11.0 · On target 5.3

Recent attacking output is broadly balanced between the two teams.

Defence Recent defensive resistance
Westerlo Reserves RFC Seraing Reserves
Shots allowed 9.8 · On target allowed 5.8 Shots allowed 8.8 · On target allowed 4.0

RFC Seraing Reserves has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence
Westerlo Reserves RFC Seraing Reserves

The combined recent performance profile is relatively balanced.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

Explore recent match statisticsCharts and detailed data
RECENT FORM · LAST 6 MATCHES

Recent matches compared

These charts compare recent performance with the league average. The central line represents the benchmark: values to the right are higher and values to the left are lower. Higher values are not always better, particularly for defensive metrics.
Benchmark: Belgium Reserve League · 41 matches with scores · 39 with shots · coverage 95.1%.
Historical window: 180 days before kickoff. Shooting benchmarks require at least 30 complete matches.

How have the teams performed recently?

Most recent first · W win · D draw · L loss

Westerlo Reserves6 matches · 2 home / 4 away
LWWLWW
Shot data available for 6/6 matches
RFC Seraing Reserves4 matches · 2 home / 2 away
WWLW
Shot data available for 4/4 matches

Shots taken

Shots per match · difference from league average

0 = league average
Westerlo ReservesHome team
+3.114.0 actual
RFC Seraing ReservesAway team
+0.111.0 actual
Westerlo Reserves: 14.0 · league average 10.9 · 6 valid matchesRFC Seraing Reserves: 11.0 · league average 10.9 · 4 valid matches

Shots conceded

Opposition shots per match · difference from league average

0 = league average
Westerlo ReservesHome team
−2.98.0 actual
RFC Seraing ReservesAway team
−2.18.8 actual
Westerlo Reserves: 8.0 · league average 10.9 · 6 valid matchesRFC Seraing Reserves: 8.8 · league average 10.9 · 4 valid matches

Shots on target

Shots on target per match · difference from league average

0 = league average
Westerlo ReservesHome team
+1.76.8 actual
RFC Seraing ReservesAway team
+0.15.3 actual
Westerlo Reserves: 6.8 · league average 5.1 · 6 valid matchesRFC Seraing Reserves: 5.3 · league average 5.2 · 4 valid matches

Shots on target conceded

Opposition shots on target per match · difference from league average

0 = league average
Westerlo ReservesHome team
−0.94.3 actual
RFC Seraing ReservesAway team
−1.24.0 actual
Westerlo Reserves: 4.3 · league average 5.2 · 6 valid matchesRFC Seraing Reserves: 4.0 · league average 5.2 · 4 valid matches

Goals scored

Goals per match · difference from league average

0 = league average
Westerlo ReservesHome team
+1.043.00 actual
RFC Seraing ReservesAway team
+0.252.25 actual
Westerlo Reserves: 3.00 · league average 1.96 · 6 valid matchesRFC Seraing Reserves: 2.25 · league average 2.00 · 4 valid matches

Shot conversion

Goals per shot · difference from league average in percentage points

0 = league average
Westerlo ReservesHome team
+3.3 pp21.4% actual
RFC Seraing ReservesAway team
+2.1 pp20.5% actual
Westerlo Reserves: 21.4% · league average 18.2% · 6 valid matchesRFC Seraing Reserves: 20.5% · league average 18.4% · 4 valid matches

Goals conceded per shots faced

Goals conceded per opposition shot · difference from league average in percentage points

0 = league average
Westerlo ReservesHome team
−2.0 pp16.7% actual
RFC Seraing ReservesAway team
−4.1 pp14.3% actual
Westerlo Reserves: 16.7% · league average 18.7% · 6 valid matchesRFC Seraing Reserves: 14.3% · league average 18.4% · 4 valid matches

Individual match details

Westerlo Reserves · individual matches
DateVenueResultShots for/againstOn target for/against
16/10/2026Away1–211 / 132 / 9
09/10/2026Home2–110 / 97 / 6
18/09/2026Away3–022 / 1010 / 2
11/09/2026Home1–37 / 72 / 6
04/09/2026Away4–218 / 711 / 3
15/05/2026Away7–016 / 29 / 0
RFC Seraing Reserves · individual matches
DateVenueResultShots for/againstOn target for/against
09/10/2026Home3–17 / 65 / 2
11/09/2026Away3–113 / 87 / 4
04/09/2026Home1–29 / 115 / 6
28/08/2026Away2–115 / 104 / 4

The recent matches are the latest available before kickoff within the historical window and may include other competitions. The benchmark refers to the event league and is weighted by the home/away composition of the recent sample. Goals and shots may have different data coverage; conversion rates use only matches with paired observations. Benchmarks are reconstructed from match dates rather than certified data-capture timestamps. Opponent strength and chance quality (xG) are not adjusted for. Some statistics may be incomplete or anomalous. These indicators are descriptive, not predictive.