Centre Chiefs vs Tonota FC

04 Sep 2026 · 19:00

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE AWAY +2.6 pp

Centre Chiefs

Tonota FC

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 54.8% DRAW 28.9% AWAY 16.3%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 59.3% 1.55 DRAW 27.0% 3.40 AWAY 13.7% 6.72

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for Tonota FC relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 16.3% win probability, compared with 13.7% implied by the market. The 2.6 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: Centre Chiefs

The away side shows the stronger recent defensive profile, while the attacking comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Centre Chiefs Tonota FC

Shots 9.3 · On target 3.5 Shots 4.5 · On target 2.3

Recent attacking output favours Centre Chiefs, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Centre Chiefs Tonota FC

Shots allowed 13.8 · On target allowed 5.5 Shots allowed 0.8 · On target allowed 0.0

Tonota FC has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Centre Chiefs Tonota FC

The combined recent performance profile favours Tonota FC.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home strengthening

Centre Chiefs ↓ -0.24 (-13.4%)

Tonota FC ↑ +2.17 (+47.5%)

The home price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the home side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.