Real Oviedo (W) vs Sporting Gijon (W)

09 Sep 2026 · 17:30

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +1.5 pp

Real Oviedo (W)

Sporting Gijon (W)

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 62.9% DRAW 19.1% AWAY 18.0%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 63.9% 1.46 DRAW 19.6% 4.75 AWAY 16.5% 5.65

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 1.5 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: Real Oviedo (W)

The away side shows the stronger recent defensive profile, while the attacking comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Real Oviedo (W) Sporting Gijon (W)

Shots 8.8 · On target 3.8 Shots 5.3 · On target 3.0

Recent attacking output favours Real Oviedo (W), combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Real Oviedo (W) Sporting Gijon (W)

Shots allowed 13.3 · On target allowed 7.8 Shots allowed 8.8 · On target allowed 3.5

Sporting Gijon (W) has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Real Oviedo (W) Sporting Gijon (W)

The combined recent performance profile is relatively balanced.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Away weakening

Real Oviedo (W) ↑ +0.02 (+1.1%)

Sporting Gijon (W) ↑ +0.65 (+13.0%)

The away price has moved clearly higher, while the home price has remained broadly stable.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.