Bragantino vs EC Bahia

05 Sep 2026 · 21:00

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +1.8 pp

Bragantino

EC Bahia

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 47.7% DRAW 25.5% AWAY 26.8%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 49.4% 1.97 DRAW 25.7% 3.79 AWAY 24.9% 3.90

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 1.8 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

EC Bahia has the stronger recent profile

The away side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Bragantino EC Bahia

Shots 14.0 · On target 5.0 Shots 16.0 · On target 5.5

Recent attacking output is broadly balanced between the two teams.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Bragantino EC Bahia

Shots allowed 13.8 · On target allowed 5.0 Shots allowed 12.0 · On target allowed 2.8

EC Bahia has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Bragantino EC Bahia

The combined recent performance profile favours EC Bahia.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Market broadly stable

Bragantino ↓ -0.05 (-2.3%)

EC Bahia ↑ +0.10 (+2.6%)

No substantial directional movement is visible in the stored odds trend.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.