Fluminense vs Vasco da Gama

06 Sep 2026 · 02:00

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +0.9 pp

Fluminense

Vasco da Gama

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 40.4% DRAW 29.7% AWAY 29.9%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 39.5% 2.50 DRAW 29.6% 3.34 AWAY 30.9% 3.20

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 0.9 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: Fluminense

Recent attacking and defensive numbers do not show a clear overall edge.

Attack Recent attacking output

Fluminense Vasco da Gama

Shots 13.5 · On target 6.3 Shots 12.5 · On target 4.3

Recent attacking output favours Fluminense, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Fluminense Vasco da Gama

Shots allowed 12.3 · On target allowed 4.8 Shots allowed 10.8 · On target allowed 4.5

Recent defensive numbers are broadly balanced between the two teams.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Fluminense Vasco da Gama

The combined recent performance profile is relatively balanced.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Away strengthening

Fluminense ↑ +0.60 (+31.6%)

Vasco da Gama ↓ -1.12 (-25.9%)

The away price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the away side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.