Botafogo vs Palmeiras

06 Sep 2026 · 23:30

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +1.7 pp

Botafogo

Palmeiras

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 28.6% DRAW 26.5% AWAY 44.9%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 26.9% 3.65 DRAW 26.5% 3.71 AWAY 46.6% 2.11

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 1.7 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: Botafogo

The home side shows the stronger recent attacking profile, while the defensive comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Botafogo Palmeiras

Shots 17.0 · On target 4.5 Shots 12.8 · On target 4.0

Recent attacking output favours Botafogo, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Botafogo Palmeiras

Shots allowed 13.3 · On target allowed 3.8 Shots allowed 11.0 · On target allowed 3.3

Recent defensive numbers are broadly balanced between the two teams.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Botafogo Palmeiras

The combined recent performance profile is relatively balanced.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Market broadly stable

Botafogo ↑ +0.33 (+9.9%)

Palmeiras ↓ -0.07 (-3.3%)

No substantial directional movement is visible in the stored odds trend.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.