Corinthians vs Chapecoense

07 Sep 2026 · 00:30

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +0.5 pp

Corinthians

Chapecoense

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 66.4% DRAW 21.3% AWAY 12.3%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 65.9% 1.48 DRAW 21.7% 4.50 AWAY 12.4% 7.88

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 0.5 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: Chapecoense

Recent attacking and defensive numbers do not show a clear overall edge.

Attack Recent attacking output

Corinthians Chapecoense

Shots 14.3 · On target 3.8 Shots 15.3 · On target 4.8

Recent attacking output is broadly balanced between the two teams.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Corinthians Chapecoense

Shots allowed 10.8 · On target allowed 3.5 Shots allowed 15.0 · On target allowed 4.3

Corinthians has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Corinthians Chapecoense

The combined recent performance profile is relatively balanced.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Market broadly stable

Corinthians ↑ +0.01 (+0.7%)

Chapecoense ↑ +0.05 (+0.6%)

No substantial directional movement is visible in the stored odds trend.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.