Vitoria vs Gremio

08 Sep 2026 · 01:00

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +2.3 pp

Vitoria

Gremio

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 47.2% DRAW 28.1% AWAY 24.7%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 44.9% 2.18 DRAW 28.5% 3.44 AWAY 26.7% 3.67

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 2.3 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Mixed Performance

Recent attacking and defensive numbers do not show a clear overall edge.

Attack Recent attacking output

Vitoria Gremio

Shots 12.0 · On target 3.3 Shots 10.0 · On target 3.5

Recent attacking output is broadly balanced between the two teams.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Vitoria Gremio

Shots allowed 15.3 · On target allowed 5.8 Shots allowed 21.0 · On target allowed 5.5

Recent defensive numbers are broadly balanced between the two teams.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Vitoria Gremio

The combined recent performance profile is relatively balanced.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Market broadly stable

Vitoria ↑ +0.08 (+3.8%)

Gremio ↓ -0.10 (-2.7%)

No substantial directional movement is visible in the stored odds trend.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.