CE Bento Goncalves vs EC Pelotas

05 Sep 2026 · 22:00

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE HOME +2.7 pp

CE Bento Goncalves

EC Pelotas

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 36.3% DRAW 31.1% AWAY 32.6%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 33.6% 2.75 DRAW 30.8% 3.00 AWAY 35.6% 2.59

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for CE Bento Goncalves relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 36.3% win probability, compared with 33.6% implied by the market. The 2.7 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: CE Bento Goncalves

The home side shows the stronger recent attacking profile, while the defensive comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

CE Bento Goncalves EC Pelotas

Shots 13.5 · On target 5.8 Shots 9.5 · On target 3.8

Recent attacking output favours CE Bento Goncalves, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

CE Bento Goncalves EC Pelotas

Shots allowed 11.5 · On target allowed 2.0 Shots allowed 10.5 · On target allowed 4.0

CE Bento Goncalves has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

CE Bento Goncalves EC Pelotas

The combined recent performance profile favours CE Bento Goncalves.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Market broadly stable

CE Bento Goncalves ↓ -0.05 (-1.8%)

EC Pelotas ↑ +0.14 (+5.7%)

No substantial directional movement is visible in the stored odds trend.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.