Independiente del Valle vs Flamengo

11 Sep 2026 · 02:30

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +0.3 pp

Independiente del Valle

Flamengo

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 27.4% DRAW 32.8% AWAY 39.8%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 28.3% 3.48 DRAW 32.2% 3.06 AWAY 39.5% 2.49

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 0.3 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Defensive Edge: Flamengo

The away side shows the stronger recent defensive profile, while the attacking comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Independiente del Valle Flamengo

Shots 12.8 · On target 4.8 Shots 15.3 · On target 4.3

Recent attacking output is broadly balanced between the two teams.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Independiente del Valle Flamengo

Shots allowed 13.3 · On target allowed 5.5 Shots allowed 11.8 · On target allowed 4.0

Flamengo has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Independiente del Valle Flamengo

The combined recent performance profile is relatively balanced.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Away strengthening

Independiente del Valle ↑ +0.67 (+23.8%)

Flamengo ↓ -0.24 (-8.8%)

The away price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the away side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.