Primavera SP vs Sao Caetano

05 Sep 2026 · 22:00

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE HOME +3.3 pp

Primavera SP

Sao Caetano

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 80.6% DRAW 14.9% AWAY 4.5%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 77.4% 1.27 DRAW 16.9% 5.83 AWAY 5.8% 17.00

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for Primavera SP relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 80.6% win probability, compared with 77.4% implied by the market. The 3.3 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Primavera SP has the stronger recent profile

The home side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Primavera SP Sao Caetano

Shots 13.8 · On target 5.3 Shots 5.5 · On target 2.0

Recent attacking output favours Primavera SP, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Primavera SP Sao Caetano

Shots allowed 11.3 · On target allowed 5.0 Shots allowed 20.3 · On target allowed 6.8

Primavera SP has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Primavera SP Sao Caetano

The combined recent performance profile favours Primavera SP.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Market broadly stable

Primavera SP ↓ -0.04 (-3.1%)

Sao Caetano ↑ +6.70 (+65.0%)

No substantial directional movement is visible in the stored odds trend.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.