HPS vs PPJ

08 Sep 2026 · 18:00

OPPORTUNITY

CLEAR EDGE AWAY +5.8 pp

HPS

PPJ

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 28.7% DRAW 21.6% AWAY 49.7%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 33.0% 2.86 DRAW 23.0% 4.10 AWAY 43.9% 2.15

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet rates PPJ clearly higher than the market does.

Our calibrated model estimates a 49.7% win probability, compared with 43.9% implied by the market. The 5.8 percentage-point difference indicates a clear divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

PPJ has the stronger recent profile

The away side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

HPS PPJ

Shots 6.8 · On target 2.8 Shots 10.5 · On target 6.0

Recent attacking output favours PPJ, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

HPS PPJ

Shots allowed 18.0 · On target allowed 9.5 Shots allowed 11.8 · On target allowed 4.8

PPJ has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

HPS PPJ

The combined recent performance profile favours PPJ.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Market broadly stable

HPS ↓ -0.09 (-3.1%)

PPJ ↑ +0.19 (+9.7%)

No substantial directional movement is visible in the stored odds trend.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.