MyPa vs Reipas

04 Sep 2026 · 17:30

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +0.9 pp

MyPa

Reipas

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 30.2% DRAW 23.3% AWAY 46.5%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 30.3% 3.11 DRAW 24.1% 3.90 AWAY 45.6% 2.06

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 0.9 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Defensive Edge: Reipas

The away side shows the stronger recent defensive profile, while the attacking comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

MyPa Reipas

Shots 7.8 · On target 1.5 Shots 7.3 · On target 3.3

Recent attacking output favours Reipas, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

MyPa Reipas

Shots allowed 12.3 · On target allowed 5.3 Shots allowed 10.0 · On target allowed 4.3

Reipas has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

MyPa Reipas

The combined recent performance profile favours Reipas.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home strengthening

MyPa ↓ -0.34 (-9.7%)

Reipas ↑ +0.30 (+16.8%)

The home price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the home side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.