Leaper FC vs Citizen AA

13 Sep 2026 · 09:30

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE HOME +3.7 pp

Leaper FC

Citizen AA

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 28.1% DRAW 21.4% AWAY 50.6%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 24.4% 4.00 DRAW 21.7% 4.50 AWAY 54.0% 1.81

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for Leaper FC relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 28.1% win probability, compared with 24.4% implied by the market. The 3.7 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Defensive Edge: Leaper FC

The home side shows the stronger recent defensive profile, while the attacking comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Leaper FC Citizen AA

Shots 11.8 · On target 5.5 Shots 11.8 · On target 5.5

Recent attacking output is broadly balanced between the two teams.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Leaper FC Citizen AA

Shots allowed 11.5 · On target allowed 4.8 Shots allowed 17.3 · On target allowed 6.3

Leaper FC has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Leaper FC Citizen AA

The combined recent performance profile is relatively balanced.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Away strengthening

Leaper FC ↑ +2.88 (+257.1%)

Citizen AA ↓ -13.69 (-88.3%)

The away price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the away side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.