Deportivo Pasto vs Independiente Medellin

10 Sep 2026 · 03:10

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +0.4 pp

Deportivo Pasto

Independiente Medellin

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 24.7% DRAW 28.9% AWAY 46.4%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 25.2% 3.83 DRAW 28.8% 3.35 AWAY 46.0% 2.10

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 0.4 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: Independiente Medellin

The away side shows the stronger recent attacking profile, while the defensive comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Deportivo Pasto Independiente Medellin

Shots 13.0 · On target 3.3 Shots 17.0 · On target 7.0

Recent attacking output favours Independiente Medellin, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Deportivo Pasto Independiente Medellin

Shots allowed 10.8 · On target allowed 3.3 Shots allowed 11.5 · On target allowed 5.0

Deportivo Pasto has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Deportivo Pasto Independiente Medellin

The combined recent performance profile is relatively balanced.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Market broadly stable

Deportivo Pasto ↑ +0.63 (+19.7%)

Independiente Medellin ↓ -0.09 (-4.1%)

No substantial directional movement is visible in the stored odds trend.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.