Bac Ninh vs Cong An HCMC

11 Sep 2026 · 13:00

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE HOME +2.7 pp

Bac Ninh

Cong An HCMC

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 35.0% DRAW 31.4% AWAY 33.6%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 32.3% 2.88 DRAW 31.0% 3.00 AWAY 36.7% 2.53

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for Bac Ninh relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 35.0% win probability, compared with 32.3% implied by the market. The 2.7 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Bac Ninh has the stronger recent profile

The home side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Bac Ninh Cong An HCMC

Shots 11.3 · On target 6.3 Shots 10.0 · On target 3.8

Recent attacking output favours Bac Ninh, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Bac Ninh Cong An HCMC

Shots allowed 14.3 · On target allowed 7.5 Shots allowed 17.3 · On target allowed 8.0

Recent defensive numbers are broadly balanced between the two teams.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Bac Ninh Cong An HCMC

The combined recent performance profile favours Bac Ninh.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Market broadly stable

Bac Ninh ↑ +0.18 (+6.5%)

Cong An HCMC = (0.0%)

No substantial directional movement is visible in the stored odds trend.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.