Urena SC vs Real Frontera

13 Sep 2026 · 21:30

OPPORTUNITY

CLEAR EDGE HOME +4.9 pp

Urena SC

Real Frontera

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 59.5% DRAW 22.9% AWAY 17.7%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 54.6% 1.68 DRAW 24.5% 3.75 AWAY 21.0% 4.38

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet rates Urena SC clearly higher than the market does.

Our calibrated model estimates a 59.5% win probability, compared with 54.6% implied by the market. The 4.9 percentage-point difference indicates a clear divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Urena SC has the stronger recent profile

The home side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Urena SC Real Frontera

Shots 11.0 · On target 4.8 Shots 8.8 · On target 4.0

Recent attacking output is broadly balanced between the two teams.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Urena SC Real Frontera

Shots allowed 10.0 · On target allowed 3.8 Shots allowed 18.8 · On target allowed 7.0

Urena SC has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Urena SC Real Frontera

The combined recent performance profile favours Urena SC.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Market broadly stable

Urena SC ↓ -0.07 (-4.0%)

Real Frontera ↑ +0.78 (+21.5%)

No substantial directional movement is visible in the stored odds trend.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.