CD Lara vs Atletico El Vigia

17 Sep 2026 · 01:00

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +1.9 pp

CD Lara

Atletico El Vigia

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 57.5% DRAW 23.7% AWAY 18.8%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 59.7% 1.57 DRAW 23.4% 4.00 AWAY 16.9% 5.56

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 1.9 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: Atletico El Vigia

The away side shows the stronger recent attacking profile, while the defensive comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

CD Lara Atletico El Vigia

Shots 8.3 · On target 4.0 Shots 12.8 · On target 5.3

Recent attacking output favours Atletico El Vigia, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

CD Lara Atletico El Vigia

Shots allowed 11.0 · On target allowed 3.3 Shots allowed 8.0 · On target allowed 4.0

Recent defensive numbers are broadly balanced between the two teams.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

CD Lara Atletico El Vigia

The combined recent performance profile favours Atletico El Vigia.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Away weakening

CD Lara ↓ -0.03 (-1.9%)

Atletico El Vigia ↑ +2.59 (+38.3%)

The away price has moved clearly higher, while the home price has remained broadly stable.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.