Atletico El Vigia vs Yaracuyanos

13 Sep 2026 · 21:30

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE HOME +3.7 pp

Atletico El Vigia

Yaracuyanos

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 43.2% DRAW 27.8% AWAY 29.0%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 39.6% 2.35 DRAW 28.2% 3.30 AWAY 32.3% 2.88

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for Atletico El Vigia relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 43.2% win probability, compared with 39.6% implied by the market. The 3.7 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: Atletico El Vigia

The home side shows the stronger recent attacking profile, while the defensive comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Atletico El Vigia Yaracuyanos

Shots 15.5 · On target 7.0 Shots 11.5 · On target 3.8

Recent attacking output favours Atletico El Vigia, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Atletico El Vigia Yaracuyanos

Shots allowed 12.3 · On target allowed 5.8 Shots allowed 11.5 · On target allowed 8.0

Recent defensive numbers are broadly balanced between the two teams.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Atletico El Vigia Yaracuyanos

The combined recent performance profile favours Atletico El Vigia.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Market broadly stable

Atletico El Vigia ↑ +0.04 (+1.7%)

Yaracuyanos ↑ +0.20 (+7.5%)

No substantial directional movement is visible in the stored odds trend.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.