Urena SC vs CD Lara

06 Sep 2026 · 21:30

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE AWAY +3.7 pp

Urena SC

CD Lara

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 27.7% DRAW 28.1% AWAY 44.2%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 30.9% 2.95 DRAW 28.5% 3.20 AWAY 40.6% 2.25

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for CD Lara relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 44.2% win probability, compared with 40.6% implied by the market. The 3.7 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

CD Lara has the stronger recent profile

The away side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Urena SC CD Lara

Shots 8.5 · On target 3.5 Shots 13.5 · On target 6.0

Recent attacking output favours CD Lara, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Urena SC CD Lara

Shots allowed 14.3 · On target allowed 5.5 Shots allowed 10.3 · On target allowed 3.0

CD Lara has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Urena SC CD Lara

The combined recent performance profile favours CD Lara.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Market broadly stable

Urena SC ↑ +0.10 (+3.5%)

CD Lara ↓ -0.05 (-2.2%)

No substantial directional movement is visible in the stored odds trend.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.