NEC vs Excelsior

08 Sep 2026 · 18:45

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +1.4 pp

NEC

Excelsior

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 59.1% DRAW 21.2% AWAY 19.7%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 60.1% 1.62 DRAW 21.6% 4.50 AWAY 18.3% 5.31

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 1.4 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: Excelsior

Recent attacking and defensive numbers do not show a clear overall edge.

Attack Recent attacking output

NEC Excelsior

Shots 11.0 · On target 3.5 Shots 12.3 · On target 6.3

Recent attacking output favours Excelsior, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

NEC Excelsior

Shots allowed 12.0 · On target allowed 5.8 Shots allowed 13.8 · On target allowed 4.0

Recent defensive numbers are broadly balanced between the two teams.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

NEC Excelsior

The combined recent performance profile favours Excelsior.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Away strengthening

NEC ↑ +0.20 (+13.7%)

Excelsior ↓ -1.96 (-26.8%)

The away price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the away side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.