Ninh Binh vs Thanh Hoa

11 Sep 2026 · 13:00

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE HOME +3.5 pp

Ninh Binh

Thanh Hoa

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 74.7% DRAW 17.4% AWAY 7.9%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 71.3% 1.34 DRAW 19.2% 5.00 AWAY 9.6% 10.00

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for Ninh Binh relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 74.7% win probability, compared with 71.3% implied by the market. The 3.5 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Ninh Binh has the stronger recent profile

The home side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Ninh Binh Thanh Hoa

Shots 16.0 · On target 9.5 Shots 10.3 · On target 4.5

Recent attacking output favours Ninh Binh, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Ninh Binh Thanh Hoa

Shots allowed 12.8 · On target allowed 5.3 Shots allowed 14.0 · On target allowed 8.8

Ninh Binh has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Ninh Binh Thanh Hoa

The combined recent performance profile favours Ninh Binh.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Away weakening

Ninh Binh ↓ -0.04 (-2.8%)

Thanh Hoa ↑ +0.75 (+8.4%)

The away price has moved clearly higher, while the home price has remained broadly stable.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.