Independiente Santa Fe vs Vasco da Gama

09 Sep 2026 · 00:00

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE AWAY +3.3 pp

Independiente Santa Fe

Vasco da Gama

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 37.6% DRAW 32.8% AWAY 29.6%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 41.9% 2.35 DRAW 31.8% 3.10 AWAY 26.2% 3.76

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for Vasco da Gama relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 29.6% win probability, compared with 26.2% implied by the market. The 3.3 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Defensive Edge: Vasco da Gama

The away side shows the stronger recent defensive profile, while the attacking comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Independiente Santa Fe Vasco da Gama

Shots 14.3 · On target 5.3 Shots 14.3 · On target 4.5

Recent attacking output is broadly balanced between the two teams.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Independiente Santa Fe Vasco da Gama

Shots allowed 22.3 · On target allowed 7.8 Shots allowed 10.5 · On target allowed 4.5

Vasco da Gama has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Independiente Santa Fe Vasco da Gama

The combined recent performance profile favours Vasco da Gama.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home strengthening

Independiente Santa Fe ↓ -0.27 (-10.8%)

Vasco da Gama ↑ +0.48 (+15.0%)

The home price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the home side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.