Dnepr Mogilev vs FC ML Vitebsk

13 Sep 2026 · 14:00

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +2.4 pp

Dnepr Mogilev

FC ML Vitebsk

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 11.7% DRAW 20.0% AWAY 68.3%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 13.0% 7.19 DRAW 21.0% 4.45 AWAY 65.9% 1.42

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 2.4 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

FC ML Vitebsk has the stronger recent profile

The away side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Dnepr Mogilev FC ML Vitebsk

Shots 7.5 · On target 3.0 Shots 14.0 · On target 5.5

Recent attacking output favours FC ML Vitebsk, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Dnepr Mogilev FC ML Vitebsk

Shots allowed 9.5 · On target allowed 4.5 Shots allowed 6.5 · On target allowed 2.0

FC ML Vitebsk has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Dnepr Mogilev FC ML Vitebsk

The combined recent performance profile favours FC ML Vitebsk.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home strengthening

Dnepr Mogilev ↓ -1.26 (-14.9%)

FC ML Vitebsk ↑ +0.13 (+10.1%)

The home price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the home side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.