Vasco da Gama vs Independiente Santa Fe

16 Sep 2026 · 00:00

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +0.5 pp

Vasco da Gama

Independiente Santa Fe

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 72.0% DRAW 18.1% AWAY 9.9%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 71.5% 1.38 DRAW 18.6% 5.29 AWAY 9.9% 10.00

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 0.5 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: Independiente Santa Fe

The home side shows the stronger recent defensive profile, while the attacking comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Vasco da Gama Independiente Santa Fe

Shots 13.3 · On target 3.3 Shots 15.5 · On target 5.0

Recent attacking output favours Independiente Santa Fe, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Vasco da Gama Independiente Santa Fe

Shots allowed 11.0 · On target allowed 3.3 Shots allowed 15.8 · On target allowed 5.3

Vasco da Gama has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Vasco da Gama Independiente Santa Fe

The combined recent performance profile is relatively balanced.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Away strengthening

Vasco da Gama ↑ +0.05 (+3.0%)

Independiente Santa Fe ↓ -0.40 (-5.4%)

The away price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the away side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.