South Melbourne vs Lions FC

15 Sep 2026 · 11:30

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +1.9 pp

South Melbourne

Lions FC

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 57.5% DRAW 21.7% AWAY 20.8%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 59.1% 1.60 DRAW 22.0% 4.31 AWAY 18.9% 5.00

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 1.9 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: Lions FC

The away side shows the stronger recent attacking profile, while the defensive comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

South Melbourne Lions FC

Shots 8.8 · On target 2.8 Shots 17.3 · On target 7.0

Recent attacking output favours Lions FC, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

South Melbourne Lions FC

Shots allowed 6.3 · On target allowed 2.3 Shots allowed 10.3 · On target allowed 4.3

South Melbourne has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

South Melbourne Lions FC

The combined recent performance profile is relatively balanced.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home strengthening

South Melbourne ↓ -0.13 (-7.4%)

Lions FC ↑ +0.65 (+14.9%)

The home price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the home side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.