Deportivo Maldonado vs Montevideo Wanderers

05 Sep 2026 · 23:00

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +0.3 pp

Deportivo Maldonado

Montevideo Wanderers

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 46.6% DRAW 28.0% AWAY 25.4%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 46.3% 2.08 DRAW 28.1% 3.42 AWAY 25.6% 3.76

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 0.3 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Mixed Performance

Recent attacking and defensive numbers do not show a clear overall edge.

Attack Recent attacking output

Deportivo Maldonado Montevideo Wanderers

Shots 9.8 · On target 3.8 Shots 9.3 · On target 4.8

Recent attacking output is broadly balanced between the two teams.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Deportivo Maldonado Montevideo Wanderers

Shots allowed 7.5 · On target allowed 2.5 Shots allowed 7.5 · On target allowed 3.3

Recent defensive numbers are broadly balanced between the two teams.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Deportivo Maldonado Montevideo Wanderers

The combined recent performance profile is relatively balanced.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Market broadly stable

Deportivo Maldonado ↑ +0.08 (+4.0%)

Montevideo Wanderers ↓ -0.07 (-1.8%)

No substantial directional movement is visible in the stored odds trend.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.