Uniao Frederiquense vs Santa Cruz RS

06 Sep 2026 · 20:00

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +0.7 pp

Uniao Frederiquense

Santa Cruz RS

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 43.9% DRAW 33.9% AWAY 22.2%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 43.3% 2.11 DRAW 33.2% 2.75 AWAY 23.5% 3.88

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 0.7 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: Uniao Frederiquense

Recent attacking and defensive numbers do not show a clear overall edge.

Attack Recent attacking output

Uniao Frederiquense Santa Cruz RS

Shots 13.8 · On target 4.3 Shots 7.8 · On target 3.0

Recent attacking output favours Uniao Frederiquense, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Uniao Frederiquense Santa Cruz RS

Shots allowed 10.8 · On target allowed 3.8 Shots allowed 9.5 · On target allowed 2.3

Santa Cruz RS has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Uniao Frederiquense Santa Cruz RS

The combined recent performance profile is relatively balanced.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Away weakening

Uniao Frederiquense ↑ +0.03 (+1.4%)

Santa Cruz RS ↑ +0.63 (+19.4%)

The away price has moved clearly higher, while the home price has remained broadly stable.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.