Chapulineros de Oaxaca vs Pioneros de Cancun

26 Sep 2026 · 02:00

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +0.7 pp

Chapulineros de Oaxaca

Pioneros de Cancun

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 34.7% DRAW 26.7% AWAY 38.6%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 34.0% 2.70 DRAW 27.0% 3.40 AWAY 39.0% 2.35

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 0.7 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: Pioneros de Cancun

The away side shows the stronger recent attacking profile, while the defensive comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Chapulineros de Oaxaca Pioneros de Cancun

Shots 7.3 · On target 2.3 Shots 11.5 · On target 6.0

Recent attacking output favours Pioneros de Cancun, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Chapulineros de Oaxaca Pioneros de Cancun

Shots allowed 10.8 · On target allowed 6.0 Shots allowed 14.8 · On target allowed 9.3

Chapulineros de Oaxaca has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Chapulineros de Oaxaca Pioneros de Cancun

The combined recent performance profile is relatively balanced.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home strengthening

Chapulineros de Oaxaca ↓ -0.34 (-11.0%)

Pioneros de Cancun ↑ +0.20 (+9.3%)

The home price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the home side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.